When we believe something is true or false just because we want it to be
Definition:
The wishful thinking fallacy occurs when someone accepts or rejects a belief purely based on personal desire, fear, or hope, rather than on logic or evidence.
In this fallacy, emotion replaces truth, and our judgment is led astray from the path of critical thinking.
Typical structure of this fallacy:
1. “I want X to be true, so X is true.”
2. “I don’t want Y to be true, so Y is false.”
Examples from real life:
1. In political debate:
“My party will definitely build a perfect society within ten years, because I truly believe in it and hope for that outcome.”
Here, it should be noted that personal belief and hope are no substitutes for practical planning and evidence-based analysis.
2. In an academic setting:
“I’ll definitely pass the exam, because I really don’t want to fail.”
Here, it should be noted that the desire for success cannot replace proper study and academic performance.
3. In a family discussion:
“My child couldn’t possibly have lied, because I don’t want to believe they would do such a thing.”
Here, it should be noted that rejecting a reality due to emotion does not prevent it from being true.
4. On social media:
“Global warming can’t be real, because if it is, everything in our lives will fall apart—and I just don’t want that to happen.”
Here, it should be noted that fear of consequences does not erase the reality itself.
Why is this fallacy dangerous?
- It distorts reality: Our judgments are shaped by feelings rather than facts.
- It leads to poor decisions: Choices are made without a rational basis and often bring negative consequences.
- It causes unpreparedness: Ignoring unpleasant evidence prevents us from facing crises effectively.
- It weakens critical thinking: Conclusions are reached prematurely, leaving no room for careful evaluation.
How can we recognise and respond to it?
- Ask for evidence: Question whether the belief is supported by facts or merely driven by personal desire.
- Be open to being wrong: Accept that our beliefs may need to change when confronted with contrary evidence.
- Listen to different perspectives: Especially those that challenge our preferences or comfort zones.
- Practise realism: Separate feelings from factual assessments.
Conclusion:
Wishful thinking is one of the most common traps the mind creates to escape uncomfortable truths.
By recognising and avoiding this fallacy, we can make sounder judgments, wiser decisions, and contribute to a more responsible society.