Definition:
Declinism is a cognitive bias in which the mind remembers the past as better than it was and predicts the future as worse than it is.
In this state, a person mistakenly believes that “everything was better in the old days” and that today’s society, culture, or institutions are on a path of decline, even when objective evidence does not support such a view.
Explanation and mental functioning:
This bias results from the combination of several psychological mechanisms:
- Positivity towards the past: as people age, the mind fades difficult and negative memories of the past while recalling pleasant moments more vividly.
- Memory bump: research shows that older adults remember the years between 10 and 30 far more vividly than their middle-aged years. Since that period is often full of health and energy, the distant past appears idealised and exaggeratedly desirable.
- Negativity bias towards the present: the mind highlights today’s negative news and information. In the media age, the sheer volume of unpleasant news magnifies current difficulties and makes the past seem calm and safe.
Mental mechanism and cognitive outcome:
a) Mental mechanism:
- To reduce the emotional pressure of the present, the mind constructs an idealised version of the past.
- The combination of “filtered memories of the past” and “focus on today’s negative news” produces a false image of a “downward trend”.
- This image can push the mind towards a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, in which the expectation of decline brings about decline itself.
b) Outcomes:
- A reduction in individual and social hope.
- Distrust of institutions and an inability to see real progress.
- Resistance to change and innovation.
- Reinforcement of political narratives based on “returning to past glory” and intensified social polarisation.
- Loss of motivation for playing an effective social role and building the future.
Real-life examples:
1. Classical historiography:
Works such as The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon or The Decline of the West by Oswald Spengler are well-known examples of declinist thinking.
2. Contemporary political campaigns:
Slogans such as “restoring past greatness” or “taking back control” in many countries evoke declinism and create a sense of permanent crisis.
3. Everyday life:
Beliefs such as “products were of much better quality in the old days” or “people used to be more moral” are examples of this bias and are rarely supported by accurate evidence.
4. Personal views in old age:
Older individuals regard their youth as “the best period of life”, not necessarily because that time was excellent, but because of the combination of the memory bump and positivity towards the past.
Here, it should be noted that…
- A beautiful past is often the product of selective memory, not a complete historical reality.
- The present age, like any other period, is a mixture of progress and challenge, yet the mind tends to exaggerate the share of challenges.
- Global indicators such as reduced poverty and mortality and increased access to education and healthcare show that many aspects of life are better than before, even though declinism prevents us from seeing them.
Why is this bias dangerous?
- It weakens social hope and motivation.
- It reduces civic engagement and creates a sense of collective powerlessness.
- It facilitates the spread of pessimistic and populist political narratives.
- It prevents learning from the past and developing the ability to address today’s real problems.
- It darkens a person’s view of the future and makes it unproductive.
How can we recognise it and respond?
To recognise it, we may ask ourselves:
– Am I remembering the past only without its difficulties?
– Is the weight of negative news shaping my picture of today more than it should?
– Am I overlooking real progress?
– Do I believe that the future is inherently worse, without having sufficient evidence?
A suitable response might be:
- Examining real data and comparing past and present fairly.
- Remembering that memory operates selectively and emotionally.
- Paying attention to scientific, medical, social, and cultural progress.
- Practising a balanced perspective, neither denying today’s problems nor idealising the past.
- Talking to knowledgeable people and using reliable sources to gain a fuller understanding of both past and present.
Connection to Wise Education:
Wise Education, grounded in Article 26 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, calls us to judge based on evidence. Seeing realities as they are, rather than as we wish them to be, is one of the outcomes of Wise Education — and this includes the past.
An educated mind reviews the past in order to learn, not to long for it. Such a mind understands that progress and decline are both part of the natural course of history, and that by understanding the realities of yesterday and today, we can build a better future.
This perspective replaces pessimism and hopelessness with responsible hope and conscious action.
Conclusion:
Declinism shows that the mind sees the past as more beautiful and the future as darker than they really are. By recognising this error and paying attention to real evidence, we can free ourselves from excessive pessimism, understand the past correctly, and build the future with confidence in our collective wisdom.